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12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report



by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | January 12, 2021


MARKET BULLISH … Rating of 7 (0 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 6 - 10 is bullish). I’m returning to my pre-holiday-period rating of 7, the current political issue notwithstanding. There are very few “negative anythings” out there. The two biggest concerns in my view are rising interest rates (10-yr T-Note) and asset class inversion (value stocks leading growth stocks).


Since I do financial planning as well as investment management, here’s a little FP help for you. Know the new rules for RMDs for your 401-k, IRA or other DB retirement plans, which have been changed by both the 2019 SECURES ACT and the 2020 CARES ACT.


1. If you turned 70-½ on 7/1/2019 or after and would have had to take your first RMD at age 70-½ (in 2019 but which by rule you would have had to take by April 1, 2020), the SECURES ACT changed the RMD to age 72 (forget that ½ business) – you must take your first RMD now at 72 which is in 2021, but by rule, you have until April 1, 2022 to take the RMD. Got it?

2. If you turn 72 anytime in 2020 (for people born between 6/30/2018 and 12/31/2018 who would have had to take a 2020 RMD under SECURES ACT rules), the RMD was postponed by the 2020 CARES ACT until 2021 – and you must take it by December 31, 2021. Got that?

3. RMDs for 2022 and after will be calculated under new/revised IRS tables which have been in effect since 2020, and reflect the fact that Americans are now living longer, but RMDs for 2021 will be paid under current IRS tables. Seriously - got this one?

After setting a new peak-intraday-high at more than $42K, Bitcoin dropped $11K over the weekend and Monday to a trough-intraday-bottom of $31K and is now hovering at $33.5K. Commenting that Bitcoin could be much higher in 4-5 years, I warned of ups and downs. I’m not necessarily prescient or clairvoyant about Bitcoin, I just felt like a “down” was coming. Following a CNBC story, I did an interesting study – an investor made 2X more % profit over the last year owning Tesla than Bitcoin. “I’m just sayin’” as some like to say; stocks usually are better investments than Gold (and Bitcoin). By the way, I’m beginning to look at an investment in Tesla as something much different than just an investment in electric car technology (batteries and electric engines). WTI-Oil is making new highs at around $53/Bbl. Demand grows as the economy/vaccine come into focus; supply throttles back as fracking subsides and inventories shrink; and prices react exactly as you would expect in textbook fashion.

FOR NEW CLIENTS – If you would like to learn more about becoming a new client of HWM, please allow me the opportunity to explain my services to you. Call me at 972-702-6032 or reply to this email. For those of you who are already clients, thank you for your trust.

For more information or prior letters, go to http://www.defensiveadvisor.com/blog Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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