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12:00 TUESDAY – Investing Insights #268 – 11/18/25

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by Robert Holman, CFA CFP© | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com


STOCK MARKET RATING (THE BIG PICTURE) …

·         Bullish/Bearish Rating: 6 (1 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 5 - 9 is bullish).  

·         Market/Economic Condition: Normal (various wording describing childish behavior)

·         Future Outlook: fully invested and cautious

 

RATING: 6. I’ve pulled back my rating one notch.  The market appears to be faltering, but most experts still see the market as advancing.  I look at NVDA as the market leader, so if its earnings report (today) is significantly above expectations, that would be very bullish.  But, a bad report, in my view, could trigger lots of selling.

 

CONDITIONS: Normal.  We are currently experiencing normal conditions and thought processes, which is historically positive for stock prices. Good news moves the market up and bad news moves it down.  The Fed is worrying everyone, as the Chairman seemed to indicate that rates will not be lowered in the upcoming FOMC meeting.  Corporate earnings are coming out, generally, pretty good and the market wants to rally on that news. Consumers are grappling with high prices.  Restaurant and grocery price increases are worrying, and many are not dining out and/or buying substitute goods. 

 

OUTLOOK: Fully invested but cautious.  We are currently fully invested, and very cautious.  The DJIA is already down 4%.  We have a sell discipline which we are ready to execute, under the right triggers.

 

We would love the opportunity to assist you in implementing your financial objectives.  Like a good coach who helps players work on what’s needed to excel at their sport, we will assist you with a thoughtful strategy tailored for your financial situation.  Seeing the results of a well-executed strategy is downright exciting and worth the time invested to deepen your financial skills.

 

Please keep in mind that developing events may change our investing insights from those written in the above comments. To find out our current ideas, please call or email us.  Any such conversation would be conducted without any obligation on your part.

 

MUST READ:

‘A friend calls it the everything bubble’: Why do so many economists fear a 1929-style crash? - MarketWatch – talks about our focus on potential disasters over potential opportunities.

 

PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to respond to these conditions, you may send a message to my Secure Email and I’ll reply with the information you need.  I’ll also give you a free portfolio assessment, see the link below.

 

TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST.

 

 

LEARN FROM THE BIBLE … Proverbs 15:22 MSG - Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.

 

This report is a 3-minute read, published every other Tuesday afternoon. To sign up for this bi-weekly e-Newsletter, go to: http://www.defensiveadvisor.com/blog.

 

Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for, any individual without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Nor does past performance guarantee future results.

 




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Last Edited: October, 2025

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The written content and opinions voiced herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual without HWM having complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile.  Material presented herein is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. 
 
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To earn the CFA charter, candidates must master a broad-based curriculum of investment principles, and commit to abide by, and annually reaffirm, their adherence to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. The CFA Program curriculum provides a comprehensive framework of knowledge for investment decision making and is firmly grounded in the knowledge and skills used every day in the investment profession. The three levels of the CFA Program test a proficiency with a wide range of fundamental and advanced investment topics, including ethical and professional standards, fixed-income and equity analysis, alternative and derivative investments, economics, financial reporting standards, portfolio management, and wealth planning.

 

The CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct, enforced through an active professional conduct program, require CFA charter holders to:

  • Place their clients’ interests ahead of their own

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CFA® charterholders who fail to comply with the above ethics, professional standards and other requirements may be subject to the CFA Institute’s enforcement process, which could result in censure or permanent revocation of their CFA® charter.

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To attain the right to use the CFP® marks, an individual must satisfactorily fulfill the following requirements: 
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Individuals who become certified must complete the following ongoing education and ethics requirements to maintain the right to continue to use the CFP® marks: 
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CFP® professionals who fail to comply with the above standards and requirements may be subject to CFP Board’s enforcement process, which could result in suspension or permanent revocation of their CFP® certification. 

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