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12:00 TUESDAY – Bi-Weekly Market Report #234 – 4/2/24

Updated: 1 day ago

by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com


STOCK MARKET RATING (THE BIG PICTURE) … 6.0 (1-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-9 bullish).


There are warning signs that may cause me to change my perspective on the market in the near future. Those warning signs are:

1.     The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE-Core) was much higher in Jan and Feb (0.5% and 0.3%) than in the three prior months (0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.2%) worrying the market that inflation is increasing again.  If the March figure is 0.2% or less, I believe the market will relax considerably.

2.     The NASDAQ index was negative for three of the last four weeks, and this week may end up being four of the last five.  Market negativeness could diminish with another up week.

3.     The TV talking heads are constantly discussing a sell-off – are they creating a self-fulfilling prophecy?  Similar sentiments are the need for a cooling off, market being overbought, etc.


These headwinds are serious and could lead to a downturn for several more weeks, or months.  We could be at a crossroads, but I don’t want to be an alarmist, because these warning signs are being tolerated, and there are significant plus factors. Offsetting these warning signs are the positives:

1.     A growing economy and growing corporate earnings.  Reports are emerging this week and will continue for the next five weeks. This is a good environment for cyclical stocks.

2.     Of equal importance are the job creation reports, which continue to be good.  The next report is due out this Friday, and that report will probably move the market.

3.     Productivity remains high.


Should the positives continue to dominate, I’ll be looking at Financials, Industrials, and Materials and possibly Energy.  Should the negatives dominate, well non-clients will just have to call me to get a recommendation because I would have to understand your overall financial situation and your attitude toward risk.


The Bible - 2 Samuel 22:27 NIV - to the pure you show yourself pure, but to the devious you show yourself shrewd (wily, clever, acumen, artful, cunning, and deviating from a right, accepted, or common course).  Also repeats word for word in Psalm 18:26 NIV.  What exactly is this scripture saying, what is your in-depth analysis of it’s meaning, and how would you explain it, and how would you apply it?


After reading this report, if you are not sure what to do to take advantage of these conditions, you may go to: www.defensiveadvisor.com/contact to send me a secure email, and I’ll reply with the information you need.


TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST.  We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and have done better than the market since that period.


LINKS:     My Story     Strategy     About HWM      Contact     Portfolio Assessment

 

Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 15:22 MSG - Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.

 

This 2-minute report is published every other Tuesday afternoon. To sign up for this bi-weekly e-Newsletter, go to: www.defensiveadvisor.com/services.


Opinions in this post are for general information only. They are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for, any individual without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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