12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #115 – 5/18/21
by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | www.defensiveadvisor.com
INSIDE (2-minute read): Current market rating, a free offer, the economy, education, and the market.
MARKET … My rating opinion is now 6.5 (0 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 6 - 10 is bullish) due to expected lower valuations (see below). The market is still overbought, overvalued and overdue for a pull-back of some type, so stay tuned.
ECONOMY … Primary worries remain inflation, interest rates, and capital gains tax rates (for those making more than $1M annually). Increases in any of the three are highly likely to reduce stock prices.
My opinion is we are in an expansion that may take 2 years (rather than one) for a complete recovery to pre-Covid -- that would make 2022 a year of recovery, a continuation of 2021. Become a HWM client and I will help you navigate to your goals and objectives in these confusing times.
EDUCATION: 13-F FILINGS … A required quarterly report filing by all institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in AUM. It discloses the equity holdings (only required to report long positions and their put and call options, but not their short positions) of the biggest US investors, sort of a disclosure on a legged basis of what the “smart money” was doing. It sounds like a useful tool but no one at the SEC analyzes the content for accuracy and completeness, so it is generally classified as either: a) truthful; b) misleading; or c) incomplete information. Studies have shown the "widespread presence of significant reporting errors" (Source: SEC OIG and Harvard Law School).
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Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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