by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | www.defensiveadvisor.com
EQUITY MARKET RATING … 4.0 (0-4 bearish, 5.0 neutral, 6-10 bullish) … At this point, no change. It feels like the rally is back on, but how can we know this Is not a bear trap?
EQUITY MARKET and ECONOMY …
WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE TO YOU?
MONTH JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP
ISM Manufacturing Index 57.6 58.8 60.6 60.8 60.5 decreasing bad
ISM Services Index 59.9 62.3 69.1 66.7 61.9 decreasing bad
PCE Deflator Core Inflation 4.9% 4.7% 4.2% 3.7% 3.6% increasing bad
CPI - Core Inflation 5.5% 4.9% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0% increasing bad
Construction Spending 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% decreasing bad
Retail Sales ex. Auto -2.3% 0.1% 1.8% 6.0% 2.2% decreasing bad
HOWEVER, THESE LOOK A BIT BETTER -
U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.3% 8.5% decreasing good
Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% increasing good
Civilian Employed 1,199 651 1,090 428 639 increasing good
IT’S TRUE -- THIS DATA IS LOOKING BACKWARDS, BUT CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT THE FUTURE NUMBERS WILL BE? WERE THESE TRENDS CAUSED BY COVID-OMICRON (POSSIBLY, YES) OR COULD IT BE THE BUSINESS CYCLE OR COULD IT BE GOVERNMENT POLICIES (POSSIBLY, YES). IS WAR WITH RUSSIA IMMINENT, HOW WOULD THAT CHANGE THINGS?
FINAL REMARKS THIS WEEK – Covid-Omicron seems to be peaking. This could be the factor driving markets upward. It looks like war with Russia is imminent, yet oil prices are down today (doesn’t make sense).
PORTFOLIOS … Just click here, and I’ll be happy to give you a complimentary portfolio evaluation – sending you an email explaining what’s good, how it’s likely to perform, and giving you a couple of ideas for improvement, all at no cost to you. Alternatively, you may also contact me by email at firstname.lastname@example.org, or by calling 972-702-6032, and I’ll also give you the names of two stocks we own in our portfolios and two stocks nearing Buy status.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We have had remarkable success since we started this RIA in mid-2018, ahead of the market return over the same time.
Excelsior Divitiae. 1Chronicles 12:32, Ecclesiastes 8:7, James 4:13-14, 1Chronicles 29:11-12, Proverbs 21:5, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 22:3 and 27:12, Proverbs 3:5-6
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Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.