by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | www.defensiveadvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 3.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). The weekly bull/bear battle continues, which is very evident.
EQUITY MARKETS and the ECONOMY … I’m really pressed for time today, so I’ll just say that there is no change, just increased volatility as the bull/bear battle continues. For example, the market (DJIA) started out today up 250 and is now down 250 points.
Here is a repeat of last week’s key economic indicators for those who missed it, as released from last week’s CNBC Fed Survey:
· Rate Hike – 75bp (0.75%)
· Expected Peak Rate – 4.26% in March 2023
· No. of months at peak rate - 11
· Probability of Recession in next 13 months – 52%
The big news item - It has been widely reported that Jeremy Siegel, the esteemed Finance Professor at Wharton, had a little “temper tantrum” or “rant” stating that the Fed is making repeated mistakes with their interest rate policy. His claim is that based on recent underlying data, inflation (i.e., increases) has almost come to a halt. Prices will continue to be reported as higher when compared with last year, but not higher when compared with last month. He said this on a CNBC interview that has now become widely viewed. This “rant” is being widely ‘They Know Nothing” rant that Jim Cramer, also on CNBC, issued and became famous for in 2008. Cramer was right. Siegel is disputing the Fed policy as being totally wrong. If Siegel is right, interest rates do not need to be raised any further. (Note: His other criticism of the Fed is that they waited way too long before hiking rates. Reading between the lines, in plain English, he is basically calling the Fed XXXXXs.) This is something to take note of.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure what to do with your portfolio, call me to discuss your circumstances and I’ll explain what ought to be done to help your situation.
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TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 21:5, 22:3, 27:12 and 3:56, Joshua 1:9, Ecclesiastes 8:7, 1Chronicles 12:32 and 29:11-13, and James 4:13-16.
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