12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #191 – 1/3/23
by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | www.defensiveadvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 5.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish), my assessment of present and future market conditions remains unchanged at “neutral”.
There is a significantly different trend for each of the 3 major indexes. The DJIA did top the August highs for a few days, but the broader S&P 500 did not surpass 5% under its August highs and the NASDAQ failed to get within 10% of its prior high. I do think we could be bearish for the next 3-4 weeks or so.
It’s a new year but not a new viewpoint, because not much is different yet. The most significant economic news last week was on inventories (generally going up) and home prices and home sales (generally going down). On top of that, there have been many large revisions in the economic data, and changing data makes it is somewhat difficult to interpret what is really occurring.
Most investors are anticipating that a recession will start later this year, then they believe that sometime even later, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and fiscal policy will bring big spending stimulus in response.
We can expect a lot of continued volatility until things settle down and a clearer vision of what is to come emerges. The labor report this Friday will be closely inspected by nearly everyone to see what it tells us is happening with the economy as a whole.
Will the CPI release on the 12th move the markets? Let’s see what happens on Friday first.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances and I’ll explain what ought to be done to help your situation.
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TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
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Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 15:22, 21:5, 22:3 and 27:12, Ecclesiastes 8:7, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 3:5-6, Ephesians 1:17, 1Chronicles 29:11-13, and 1 Chronicles 12:32. I recommend you read them in this order.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.