12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #204 – 4/18/23
by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 3.5 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). Expect weekly volatility, in this case, market going down for a week or two, then up for a week or two.
I do not foresee a financial crisis, at this time, but one has to wonder, are bad commercial real estate loans - commercial real estate is already in a recession – going to precipitate the next banking event?
Not much to say again this week. February was down 3 weeks out of four. March was up 3 weeks out of four. So far, April had been more-or-less sideways.
Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic on CNBC talked about inflation being sticky, and that the rate hikes done so far may only be enough to get inflation down to 3.5%. He sees one more rate hike then a pause “for quite some time” – AND a continuing need to remove excess Fed liquidity from the system, at least $1.5T dollars off balance sheet (i.e., selling government securities held by the Fed; selling which continues to put upward pressure on rates).
Both of those are my view, and I believe the Fed will do what it takes to get inflation down to 2%. I would not be surprised to see the market rally when the Fed pauses. But, a counteraction would be a Fed announcement of a plan to start reducing the size of the Fed balance sheet.
Just a short note on my investment philosophy --- I don’t try to PREDICT the FUTURE trends; I try to ADJUST RISK to the CURRENT trends. That’s a significant difference.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances, I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to help your situation. If you want to get started right now, just click here and input your portfolio holdings and I’ll call you.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
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Excelsior Divitiae. Learn from the Bible: Deuteronomy 10:14 and Psalm 24:1 (taken together), Genesis 12:2-3, Proverbs 15:22, 21:5, 22:3 and 27:12, Ecclesiastes 8:7, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 3:5-6, Ephesians 1:17, Jeremiah 29:11, 1Chronicles 29:11-13, and 1 Chronicles 12:32. I recommend you read them in this order.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.