by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 4.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). No change.
I’m publishing this on the Wednesday after Memorial Day, rather than Tuesday.
It appears at this time that a new debt ceiling agreement will be reached sometime today or tomorrow.
I still believe we will have another Fed rate hike on June 14th, but I don’t think the market will throw a temper tantrum. It appears likely we’ve escaped a severe market plunge in response to what has been a very significant rise (of 500bp or 5.0%) in the Fed Funds rate.
I’ve felt from the very beginning that a very high Federal Funds rate would be the outcome, because inflation is harder to bring down than most perceive. But other market participants were much more optimistic. Yet, here we are, and we’ve arrived at this level without a seriously painful retreat.
So, my outlook could turn more opportunistic than in the recent past, provided there are no unanticipated changes from my outlook.
For 2023 YTD, the DJIA is down -1%, the S&P 500 is up 9.2%, and the NASDAQ COMP is up 24.5%.
For 2022, DJIA was down -8.71%, the S&P 500 was down -19.6% YTD, and the NASDAQ COMP was down -33.5%.
The bond market clearly thinks we are about to start a recession, although the stock market is not as convinced. The bond market is much larger and usually smarter. The consumer will likely determine the outcome.
NVIDIA had an incredible quarter and an even better outlook, and the stock jumped 25% in one day.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances. I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to improve your situation. If you want to get started right now, just click here and input your portfolio holdings and I’ll call you.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
Excelsior Divitiae. Learn from the Bible: Deuteronomy 10:14 and Psalm 24:1 (taken together), Genesis 12:2-3, Proverbs 15:22, 21:5, 22:3 and 27:12, Ecclesiastes 8:7, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 3:5-6, Ephesians 1:17, Jeremiah 29:11, 1Chronicles 29:11-13, and 1 Chronicles 12:32. I recommend you read them in this order.
Published every Tuesday at 12:00 noon. For more information on my investment and planning services, or to sign-up for this weekly e-Newsletter, visit: www.defensiveadvisor.com/services OR www.defensiveadvisor.com/contact
Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.