Updated: Jun 29
by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 5.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). No change. Recently the market has been moving up on optimistic inflation and interest rates assumptions.
We had a much needed and overdue pullback last week (we were up too far too fast). The trend to investing in AI – Artificial Intelligence systems – was (and still is) way ahead of itself. It’s hard to imagine that the market would take off before ANY negative effects from an intentionally caused Fed recession have been reported by American companies in their financial results. SO FAR, the only reported negative effects are from interest rate hikes, not an economic recession (national sales decline). BUT, how bad will the US sales decline be? Sales declines lead to earnings declines, and earning declines lead to stock price declines.
Thoughtful material for all investors … Bob Pisani on CNBCs Squawk on the Street discussing an interview of Seth Klarman by Becky Quick earlier today – he is universally respected, a famous stock picker, one of the most famous in history, in the interview with Beck he said “investment managers have to run harder to stay in place these days, we have more competitors, smarter competitors, and more information at everybody's fingertips”. That’s the vortex of index investing - most investors have no informational advantages anymore - but there are opportunities for those who want to work hard enough. It's very difficult to provide alpha to clients these days (alpha = positive return above the market return).
Klarman suggested there may be opportunities coming up in real estate.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances. I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to improve your situation. If you want to get started right now, just click here and input your portfolio holdings and I’ll call you.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
Excelsior Divitiae. Learn from the Bible: Deuteronomy 10:14 and Psalm 24:1 (taken together), Genesis 12:2-3, Proverbs 15:22, 21:5, 22:3 and 27:12, Ecclesiastes 8:7, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 3:5-6, Ephesians 1:17, Jeremiah 29:11, 1Chronicles 29:11-13, and 1 Chronicles 12:32. I recommend you read them in this order.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.