by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING (THE BIG PICTURE) … 5.0 (1-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-9 bullish). No change.
When the market rallied in July, it was tempting to give a buy signal. The market sold off in early August, then rallied back in the last two weeks, only to fade again in September. So the July rally was anything but an “all clear” signal.
The valuation level of the S&P 500 is rich at about 19X forward 12-month earnings. This is as high as the S&P 500 valuations were in the year 2000, during the tech boom.
The valuation level of the NASDAQ 100, led by 7-8 large tech stocks, is stretched to 24X forward 12-month earnings. Perhaps this is very expensive, and perhaps this is reflective of the underlying business prospects, particularly AI.
Bankruptcies were up again in August, the 13th month in a row of increases. The Fed may raise rates again.
Caution is still warranted. Certain individual stocks will do well, given the current economic and political environment.
PORTFOLIOS… After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances. If you would like, I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to improve your situation.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 15:22. CEV - Without good advice everything goes wrong — it takes careful planning for things to go right. MSG - Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.