Updated: Jan 23
The market continues to rally, which is good news. Earnings season will be starting next week, and I’m watching to see if overall corporate earnings will delight or disappoint investors.
Of course, earnings are past information, i.e. what happened in 2019. Keep in mind, the market discounts future expectations. The key point here is that it’s unclear if unfavorable earnings surprises would change future expectations. My view is that we are in a “toppy” market and it’s possible there are enough worried investors around that the market could suffer a decrease of 5% if earnings disappoint.
It is important for me to always look at both bull and bear sides no matter what my belief is (the case for positive-side is much easier to see than the defensive-side (I call it the blind-side because most money managers do not focus on it).
There is no need to take any action at this time.
I am working on a new website and email address. Stay tuned for more information on that. It will come with a professional blog for me to publish this letter.
Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional financial advisor. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.