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TWELVE o'clock TUESDAY – Stock Market Report

by Robert Holman | The DefensiveAdvisor.com | November 24, 2020


MARKET BULLISH … Rating of 7 (0 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 6 - 10 is bullish).


Three virus vaccines appear imminent – two based on mRNA and one old-fashioned type vaccine.

A stimulus package of some sort seems likely – I saw a blurb on TV yesterday that said more than 100 economists thought it was necessary. That’s at least a third of economists employed in the finance industry.

I also saw a forecast of quarterly GDP yesterday. The figures below call for a slowdown in the first quarter of next year assuming implementation of a limited fiscal stimulus package in late 1Q’21 / early 2Q’21. So, a stimulus package is needed or the market will probably have a mild sell-off soon.


2020 2021

I II III   IV I II III IV

Q* Q* Q Q Q Q Q Q

Real GDP -5 -31.4 33.1 2.2 0.7 3.5 6.0 4.5

Figures from The Conference Board


Unemployment was 3.5% before coronavirus. It is 6.9% now after peaking at 14.7%. So, that’s a pretty strong and quick recovery.

Maybe valuations are high in some areas (stocks that benefit from working at home, etc.), but in general, they seem to reflect overall expectations of the future economy, earnings and interest rates.

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Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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