12:00 Tuesday 12/8/20 Bullish ... 7 on a scale of <5 bearish, 5 neutral, and >5 bullish
Although economic data will slip over the next 4 months, the market is showing a strong tendency to ignore it. I would love to see a 4-6% sell off coming and act on it with precision. There are many things I’d like to buy a little cheaper.
The only things that I see right now that would cause a selloff would be: problems with the vaccines, an unexpectedly bad Christmas selling season (could happen), more significant quarantine post-Christmas gatherings, and two ideas that Ill reserve to myself. So a sell off may not occur. Too bad.
I’ll probably make some portfolio changes very soon to ditch a few slow movers in favor of what should turn out to be better, faster movers for what I see coming. The trick is to try to see what’s coming and get the jump on everyone else.
Last Friday was the first time since 2018 that each of the 4 primary stock indexes closed up for the day. So that’s saying something.
Wall Street reaction to the Slack / Salesforce combination was tepid and CRM is down. But the CEO is smart, and every professional investor who’s reasoning I trust, and find to be sound, thinks very highly of the deal. I think that this stock, which is being added to the S&P 500 may very well prove to be a great investment for the foreseeable 5 years ahead. Who doesn’t need a COST, AMZN or AAPL if available, powering their portfolio engine CRM is not a B to C company - we’re talking B to B - so that makes it a good portfolio diversifier. I think it’s not as well understood by the average investor. I think it’s a good opportunity.
75% of US CEOs do NOT expect there businesses to fully recover until sometime in 2022. Now, tell me what I (me) just said to you. Think about the business I’m in and where I would be coming from. I just told you that we may have a bullish market for the next 18 months. That’s what I told you, not in with my words, but with the survey words. Develop your highest level listening and thinking skills.
As a professional, I have to make those translations all the time, almost simultaneously to get the jump on everybody else and to stay ahead of the competition. The average IQ in Wall Street is 145. I’ve been told by those that should know, that mine has tested much higher several times. But I’m no egghead and I certainly don’t know it all. Trying to do my God given best.