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12:00 TUESDAY – Investing Insights #281 – 3/31/26

by Robert Holman, CFA CFP® | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com


STOCK MARKET RATING (THE BIG PICTURE) …

  • Bullish/Bearish Rating: 4.5 = bearish (1 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 5 - 9 is bullish).  

  • Market/Economic Condition: Hopeful market, start of a declining economy

  • Outlook: Selectively reinvesting sidelined cash, guarded and wary

 

It seems like the market wants to rally – I’ve heard it called the market is on “hope-ium”.  The President speaks as though the war will be over soon, and the market rallies with confidence.  Then Iran uses drones to strike an oil tanker or missiles strike neighboring countries, and the market sinks to lower intermediate lows. Economic data have become quite bearish.  Concerns abound.


Six big concerns of the market, and their status …

  • Iran / Oil / War – Expanding. Strait of Hormuz blockage, lengthening negotiations.

  • Federal Reserve / Inflation – maybe no rate cuts this year, disappointing.

  • Interest Rates – have been rising, though down today

  • Valuations – more attractive with pullbacks, but still high.

  • Private Credit / Private Equity – lots of money on sidelines, some firms restricting withdrawals.

  • Liquidity – underemployed capital effecting sellers.


So, my market rating is now slightly bearish at 4.5.  I’m bearish because all economic indicators are negative, with many economic series being revised lower all the way back to September or October of last year.

 

PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to respond to these conditions and would like a discussion or some complimentary advice, you may send an email message and I’ll respond with the information you need.  For a free portfolio review,  get my Portfolio Assessment.

 

TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST.

 

LINKS:           My Story                   About            Subscribe to Blog              Contact 

 

LEARN FROM THE BIBLE … Proverbs 15:22 MSG - Refuse good advice and watch your plans fail; take good counsel and watch them succeed.  See also James 4:13-16.

 

This report is a 2-3 minute read, published every Tuesday afternoon. To sign up for this weekly e-Newsletter, go to: http://www.defensiveadvisor.com/blog.

 

Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for, any individual without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Nor does past performance guarantee future results.




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Last Edited: October, 2025

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