12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #104 – 3/2/21

Updated: Mar 23

by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor |

MARKET BULLISH … Rating of 8 (0 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 6 - 10 is bullish). Despite the recent scare on 2/25, the market remains overbought but bullish. There is a rotation and broadening of areas attracting attention of investors, away from growth areas and into value investments.

NOTE: I decided to go back to the very first issue of this newsletter – published on my personal Facebook timeline on 2/26/19 – and number them going forward, and discovered I’ve published more than 100 letters!

ECONOMY and MARKETS. Thursday Feb 25, 2021 was an extraordinary day, as Treasury auctions attracted few buyers, actually showing the lowest demand on record for 7-Yr. Notes, and rates jumped significantly. Consequently, the S&P 500 was smashed, but the Dow less so. See more at:

Interest rates have been rising for the last 4 months (7 non-consecutive months), and the broad U-6 unemployment rate has been falling. See the figures below. With vaccinations spreading and the economy growing, if interest rates keep increasing, stock prices will likely be falling. Why? Rising interest rates (up about 50 bp in the last 4 weeks) almost always lead to lower stock prices.

The stock market looks 6 months ahead. The Fed has been saying they are not going to raise rates until next year. However, the bond market is looking 6 months ahead also, and has a different view, ignoring the Fed (“hey Federal Reserve, the market sets interest rates, not you”), and is expecting increased economic activity to lead to higher inflation and interest rates, so market rates have started to move up in advance of any Fed rate decision.

As rates stabilized on Friday-Monday, or at least didn’t go higher, the market rallied.

This may have been expected by some market participants, and may have been unexpected by others, or at least others may have adopted a wait-and-see approach.


U-6 Unemployment

11.1% 11.7% 12.0% 12.1% 12.8% 14.2% 16.5% 18.0% 21.2% 22.8%


10-Year Treasury-Note, constant maturity

1.44% 1.54% 1.11% 0.93% 0.84% 0.88% 0.69% 0.72% 0.55%

Note: 1.54% is the closing rate for 2/25/2021, 1.44% is the 2/26 rate, waiting for 3/1 data

CHANGING. For several weeks, or maybe even months, the market seemed very overbought, especially in certain groups. Risk of a decline in prices was increasing. Money had been shifting from groups in fashion because of Covid to groups that had been out-of-fashion but were increasing in price as they were coming into fashion in a “re-opening economy” scenario.

CONCLUSION. Please call me at 972-702-6032 to see what I am doing in this scenario. Or, you may click on this link to go to my website email contact form. As a result of these factors, I’m making significant changes in my client portfolios this week.

The question is –

· will the inflation trend continue, will rates increase, and will stock prices fall? -or-

· are recent inflation and interest rates trends transitory, and will stock prices head higher?

· To get an answer to this and other questions, please call me or email me (see below)

FOR NEW CLIENTS – HWM manages risk in your portfolio by taking defensive action in times of difficulty, seeking to not give profits back to the market. If you would like to have me look at the holdings in your portfolio, please phone 972-702-6032, and I will give you pointers on how you can improve your holdings to achieve better results. You can also email me from my website

FOR EXISTING CLIENTS - thank you for your trust.

For more information or prior letters, go to my website

Opinions voiced in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual, without complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

#StockMarketInvestmentLetter #InvestmentManager #IndependentFinancialAdvisor #12:00 Tuesday

Holman Wealth Management - The Defensive Advisor

Dallas, TX 75229 


Last Edited: December 2020


Holman Wealth Management LLC is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the State of Texas. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information shared on this page shall not be directly or indirectly interpreted as a solicitation of investment advisory services to persons of another jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by statute.
The written content and opinions voiced herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual without HWM having complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile.  Material presented herein is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. 
To determine what is appropriate for you, consult HWM or a qualified professional financial advisor.  While we provide general tax and legal information, please consult with a tax professional or attorney on tax and legal issues before proceeding on such information.  No investment strategy guarantees success or assures against occasional losses.


© 2020 by and Holman Wealth Management LLC.  Created with


CFA - Chartered Financial Analyst (or CFA®): The CFA charter is the gold standard for the investment industry. CFA charterholders enjoy a mark of the highest distinction in the investment management profession, a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. Passing the three six-hour cumulative CFA exams (Levels I, II, III) is a difficult feat that requires extensive study (successful CFA candidates report spending an average 3,000 hours of study to become a CFA). Earning the CFA charter demonstrates mastery of many of the advanced skills needed for investment analysis and decision making in today’s quickly evolving global financial industry.


To earn the CFA charter, candidates must master a broad-based curriculum of investment principles and commit to abide by, and annually reaffirm, their adherence to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. The CFA Program curriculum provides a comprehensive framework of knowledge for investment decision making and is firmly grounded in the knowledge and skills used every day in the investment profession. The three levels of the CFA Program test a proficiency with a wide range of fundamental and advanced investment topics, including ethical and professional standards, fixed-income and equity analysis, alternative and derivative investments, economics, financial reporting standards, portfolio management, and wealth planning.


The CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct, enforced through an active professional conduct program, require CFA charter holders to:

  • Place their clients’ interests ahead of their own

  • Maintain independence and objectivity

  • Act with integrity

  • Maintain and improve their professional competence

  • Disclose conflicts of interest and legal matters


CFP® (CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™): The CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® and federally registered CFP (with flame design) marks (collectively, the “CFP® marks”) are professional certification marks granted in the United States by Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (“CFP Board”). Individuals who become certified must complete 30 hours of continuing education every two years, and agree to be bound by ethics requirements in order to maintain the right to continue to use the CFP® marks.


The CFP® certification is a voluntary certification; no federal or state law or regulation requires financial planners to hold CFP® certification. To attain the right to use the CFP® marks, an individual must satisfactorily fulfill the following requirements:

  • Education – Complete an advanced college-level course of study addressing the financial planning subject areas that CFP Board’s studies have determined as necessary for the competent and professional delivery of financial planning services - including insurance and risk management, employee benefits, investments, income tax, retirement, and estate planning;

  • Examination – Pass the comprehensive CFP® Certification Examination - includes case studies and client scenarios designed to test one’s ability to correctly diagnose financial planning issues and apply one’s knowledge of financial planning to real-world circumstances;

  • Experience – Complete at least three years of full-time financial planning-related experience (or the equivalent); and

  • Ethics – Agree to be bound by CFP Board’s Standards of Professional Conduct, a set of documents outlining the ethical and practice standards for CFP® professionals.


Proud member of XY Planning Network! Advisors displaying this badge have been accepted into XY Planning Network by vowing to adhere to strict fiduciary standards and by carrying the CFP® designation. XY Planning Network is the leading financial planning platform for fee-for-service financial advisors who want to serve their Gen X and Gen Y peers by providing comprehensive financial planning services without commissions, product sales or asset minimums. 

  • Facebook Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon
  • LinkedIn Social Icon
  • XYPN Member Badge small