by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | February 9, 2021
MARKET BULLISH … Rating of 8 (0 - 4 is bearish, 5 is neutral, 6 - 10 is bullish). I’m going to 8 because these times are so unlike any other. The US Money Supply has increased so aggressively, and household savings have increased so dramatically, that it’s just amazing. Add-in the effects of several fiscal stimulus packages, and everything looks wonderful. The market is rallying so strongly, nearly every group is up this year.
CHANGING. About 10% of the US population has been vaccinated at least once, and I would think that at least 7% are in the high-risk group, with 3% being my guess for health care workers vaccinated. The number of vaccinations is approximately 10 times the number of new deaths. New deaths have declined sharply from a peak of 5,000 on Feb. 5th to 1,500 yesterday.
RISKS. My dominant investor concern is the possibility of rising inflation and rising interest rates. Yet, the 10-Yr. T-Note is rising in price again (that’s a declining interest rate) and has been rising in price steadily since the first of the year. One other risk concern would be the possibility of some new coronavirus variant that proved to be especially deadly.
OTHER. Oil price is increasing significantly, hitting $60/Bbl today.
Elon Musk announced on Monday that he invested $1.5Billion into Bitcoin last month and Tesla will start accepting bitcoin as payment for a new car. So, Bitcoin is on a tear.
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