12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #178 – 10/4/22
Updated: Oct 11, 2022
by Robert Holman | The Defensive Advisor | www.defensiveadvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 3.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). While investor sentiment may be higher today than in recent weeks, the weekly bear/bull/bear/bull battle is likely to resume when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in it’s November meeting.
EQUITY MARKETS and the ECONOMY … Of the last six weeks, all but one week was negative. Not only were they negative, those weeks were down significantly, with the best of those 5 down weeks losing 864 points overall, and the worst of those down weeks losing 1424 points overall. That is unusually negative.
This type of negativity has led to two strong relief rally days this week, on thin news that the Federal Reserve might be turning less bullish hawkish. (corrected 10/11/22)
Investors could easily get carried away and give us two bullish rebound weeks, but as we approach the Fed meeting in early November, focus on the Fed will be intense. In a day and age where interviews with Fed officials are widely publicized, any bearish comment could lead to a hyper reaction – for example, should the Fed indicate that it feels another rate increase – this time 50bp – is appropriate. That is my expectation for the last couple of weeks for the month.
Prior to this week, the expectation was for a 50bp increase, and that is still the most likely case. All of these comments are highly speculative, so please just understand this is my scenario, and is set forth for you to consider.
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Learn from the Bible: Proverbs 21:5, 22:3, 27:12 and 3:56, Joshua 1:9, Ecclesiastes 8:7, 1Chronicles 12:32 and 29:11-13, and James 4:13-16.
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