12:00 TUESDAY – Stock Market Report #212 – 6/20/23
by Robert Holman | www.DefensiveAdvisor.com
STOCK MARKET RATING … 5.0 (0-4 bearish, 5 neutral, 6-10 bullish). No change. Recently the market has been moving up on optimistic inflation and interest rates assumptions.
TD Ameritrade Securities says “Our recession probability model indicates there is an 81% probability of a recession within the next 12 months. The current market dynamic looks overly optimistic.”
Currently there is a ‘soft landing’ consensus, but some believe that it will be worse. We go with the consensus for now.
What happens with stock prices from here? The majority opinion would be for a market that moves lower in expectation of the consensus view coming about, but quickly begins to rise as the recessive numbers are actually realized. That’s because the market moves on future expectations rather than on actual results.
Inflation has come down somewhat, but has not been broken, so rates could go up as much as another 100 basis points (1%, from 5 - 5.25% to 6 - 6.25%).
The WSJ reports that the Chinese military is in Cuba, where the Chinese are constructing a joint training facility with the Cuban military.
PORTFOLIOS … After reading this report, if you are unsure how to position your portfolio to take advantage of these conditions, call me to discuss your circumstances. I’ll do a complimentary portfolio evaluation, and I’ll explain what ought to be done to improve your situation. If you want to get started right now, just click here and input your portfolio holdings and I’ll call you.
TO MY CLIENTS … THANK YOU FOR YOUR TRUST. We’ve had great success since we started this RIA in mid-2018 and are doing better than the market return since that time period.
Excelsior Divitiae. Learn from the Bible: Deuteronomy 10:14 and Psalm 24:1 (taken together), Genesis 12:2-3, Proverbs 15:22, 21:5, 22:3 and 27:12, Ecclesiastes 8:7, Joshua 1:9, Proverbs 3:5-6, Ephesians 1:17, Jeremiah 29:11, 1Chronicles 29:11-13, and 1 Chronicles 12:32. I recommend you read them in this order.
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Opinions in this post are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice to, or recommendations for any individual, without our complete knowledge of that individual’s total financial profile. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.